San Mateo County's Highest EVER Median Price: $1.93M (Here's Why)

Table of Contents

• San Mateo County Market Snapshot
• Why San Mateo County’s Home Prices Are Rising So Fast
• AI Boom, Stock Market Gains, and a Wave of New Buyers
• Demographics And Household Income
• Inventory, Supply And Seasonality
• Luxury Market Breakdown
• San Mateo County Housing: Condos vs. Single-Family Homes
• How Buyers Can Still Win in This Market
• How Sellers Should Prepare for Maximum Return
• Neighborhood Notes And Local Impact
• Frequently Asked Questions About the San Mateo County Market
• Conclusion And Next Steps

The San Mateo County housing market 2025 is reaching a historic moment. The county just recorded its highest ever Q3 median home price at about $1.93 million. That figure is not an outlier — it is the visible result of several powerful forces converging: limited supply, sustained buyer demand, and an influx of liquidity tied to tech and AI-related wealth creation. Mortgage rates remain elevated relative to the decade-low era, roughly in the low to mid 6 percent range, yet luxury sales are accelerating and competition for well-priced, well-prepared homes is intense.

San Mateo County Market Snapshot

The headline numbers you need to know about the San Mateo County housing market 2025 are straightforward:

• Q3 median home price: approximately $1.93 million, the highest Q3 median ever recorded in the county.
• Mortgage rates: hovering near 6.3 percent at the time of this analysis.
• Luxury sales: sales above $5 million countywide are up about 39 percent year over year through September.
• Active inventory: roughly 882 homes for sale, with 66 percent of active listings being single family homes.
• Homes selling over asking price: about 48 percent, down from 58 percent last year but still a strong share.
• Average days on market countywide: approximately 37 days, up from 29 but most competitive homes are gone in 7 to 14 days.
• Median price per square foot: about $1,152, slightly higher than Santa Clara County’s blended median of $1,128 per square foot.

Why San Mateo County’s Home Prices Are Rising So Fast

The San Mateo County housing market 2025 is being driven by a combination of demand-side liquidity and a continuing shortage of available homes. After the lowest sales years recently recorded in 2023 and 2024, inventory remains historically low. We have fewer than 1,000 homes actively listed countywide for roughly 740,000 residents. Less than a couple percent of the county is on the market at any given time. That imbalance — deeper demand versus shallow supply — naturally lifts prices, especially for desirable properties.

But the story is not only about fewer homes. The type and quality of buyers in the market have changed. The buyers' "bucket" of purchasing power is deeper than we have seen in recent years, largely because equity and stock-related gains have increased liquidity for many tech workers. When you combine that liquidity with the limited supply of move-in-ready homes in great locations, you get aggressive bidding and higher final sale prices for the properties buyers truly want.

AI Boom, Stock Market Gains, and a Wave of New Buyers

One of the most notable forces affecting the San Mateo County housing market 2025 is the influx of wealth tied to AI, software and the resurgence of big tech. Several dynamics matter here:

1. Stock market highs and the revaluation of company RSUs and private secondary market activity are increasing buyer liquidity.
2. Employees at AI-focused companies — both large and startups — are realizing meaningful wealth and moving into the market, sometimes as first-time buyers at price points that used to be typical only for later-stage buyers.
3. Even mid-career employees at long-established tech companies are benefiting from large gains in equity and stock value, enabling purchases at higher price points than in prior cycles.

For context, company-level events — like a large secondary market sale or a surge in stock price — can produce a handful of new buyers in a given town. In a community with relatively low monthly transaction volume, two or three motivated buyers with high liquidity are enough to materially influence pricing. That is precisely what we are seeing in pockets across the peninsula: localized spikes in demand in towns that are within easy commute distance to AI and tech hubs.

Demographics And Household Income

San Mateo County’s population profile helps explain why demand is resilient. Several noteworthy demographic facts:

• About 36 percent of residents are foreign born and the county has a high concentration of highly educated people.
• Nearly 25 percent hold graduate or professional degrees, a higher share than many other regions.
• Median household income varies enormously across the county with Atherton leading the pack at roughly $620,000, Hillsborough around $523,000, Portola Valley roughly $482,000, followed by still-high-but-lower medians in cities like Burlingame and Redwood City.

Keep in mind that median figures are midpoints. Half of households earn substantially more than the median in many of these towns, and that tail of high earners is important to the San Mateo County housing market 2025. Those households often fuel luxury purchases or pay cash where they choose to do so.

Inventory, Supply And Seasonality

Inventory is the single most important variable. San Mateo County saw the fewest number of recorded sales in 2023 in the last 20 to 25 years, and 2024 followed as the second fewest. Even though new listings increased by nearly 10 percent since September compared to the prior year, active inventory remains low at 882 homes countywide. A large share of active inventory is single family homes, which are the most sought after in this market.

Seasonality still plays a role. The market often sees more active listings after summer, and sellers sometimes adjust price expectations heading into the fall and winter. That leads to price reductions in specific cases. Year to date, price reductions trended higher by about 17 percent compared to the same period last year. This is a normal phenomenon as some sellers test ambitious asking prices, reassess, and then relist with improved presentation or adjusted price strategy.

Luxury Market Breakdown

Where the San Mateo County housing market 2025 really stands out is at the top end. The county is second only to Santa Clara County for luxury transactions in the Bay Area. Key points:

• Through the end of Q3 there were 64 sales above $5 million in Q3 alone, up roughly 10 percent year over year despite typical seasonal dips.
• Year to date, the county recorded 209 sales above $5 million, a 39 percent increase compared to the prior year.
• There were about 45 sales above $10 million year to date, the highest number among Bay Area counties.

These luxury sales are not evenly distributed. They cluster in the best locations, best condition properties, and homes with premium floor plans. That is important for both buyers and sellers. Top-of-market properties that are professionally prepared and sensibly priced are seeing steep competition and sometimes final sale prices well above the initial asking price.

San Mateo County Housing: Condos vs. Single-Family Homes

The condo market in San Mateo County is not mirroring the single family rebound. Condos are down about 8 percent in sales compared to a year ago and prices have been largely flat to slightly negative, roughly 1 to 2 percent down over the last four to five years. That divergence matters for buyers making a lifestyle choice.

If your purchase is driven by lifestyle, commute, or investment goals, condos can still make sense. But if you are buying primarily for immediate appreciation, the San Mateo County housing market 2025 suggests single family homes in desirable locations are the segment showing the strongest momentum. Be deliberate about your reasoning when choosing a condo versus a home.

How Buyers Can Still Win in This Market

Competition in the $2 million to $5 million range is especially fierce. If you want to be successful, here are practical steps to increase your odds:

1. Obtain conditional underwriting approval rather than simple preapproval. Lenders perform deeper checks for conditional underwriting approval which lets sellers know financing is solid.
2. Act quickly when the right home appears. The best homes often sell within 7 to 10 days and frequently see multiple offers.
3. Understand the market triangle of location, condition, and price. Floor plan can be a fourth axis. Decide which dimensions you will prioritize and where you can be flexible.
4. Prepare strong, clean offers with solid contingencies and clear timelines. In many cases sellers favor certainty and speed over slightly higher price with riskier terms.
5. Leverage local market insight to value properties accurately. An underpriced property can send buyers to spend $100,000 to $500,000 or more over asking depending on how underpriced and desirable it is.

Cash continues to play a role — roughly 30 percent of transactions in some higher end towns were cash. But most buyers will use financing. That makes the preparatory steps you take with a lender essential. If you are serious about buying in the San Mateo County housing market 2025 environment, you need to be both financially prepared and operationally nimble.

How Sellers Should Prepare for Maximum Return

For sellers considering a move, this may be an optimal window to list. The timing is arguably better than at any point in the previous 24 months, and early next year could be as strong or stronger for the right properties. Here is how to maximize return and speed:

• Price attractively relative to comparable recent sales and local demand.
• Invest in preparation and presentation: staging, decluttering, cosmetic fixes, and professional photography matter. Well-presented homes tend to outperform.
• Address obvious condition issues in advance to reduce buyer objections and contingencies.
• Plan the timeline carefully if you are buying and selling at the same time. Complete as many pre-transaction tasks as possible ahead of listing: inspections, disclosures, marketing collateral, and scheduling.
• Work with advisors who know micro-neighborhood pricing and who can craft a pricing and marketing strategy that leverages local demand.

If you prepare carefully you can often shorten time on market and reduce negotiation friction, which typically leads to higher final sale prices.

Neighborhood Notes And Local Impact

Small shifts in buyer composition can move local markets. Consider a town where 170 homes sold across a year in a community of 6,200 housing units. Monthly sales might be 10 to 15 homes. Two or three new buyers coming into that town with high liquidity can tilt local supply-demand balance and cause prices to rise. That is the type of force playing out across neighborhoods closest to AI employers and transit corridors.

Expect continued pressure in the northern peninsula towns that sit between San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Many buyers relocate to the mid-peninsula because it offers commute options to AI-focused startups in San Francisco and tech giants down in Silicon Valley. In short, the San Mateo County housing market 2025 will be shaped by where buyers with liquidity choose to concentrate their searches.

Frequently Asked Questions About the San Mateo County Market

Is the San Mateo County median price really at $1.93 million and what does that mean?

Yes. The Q3 median home price reached approximately $1.93 million. That median indicates the midpoint of transaction prices in the quarter and reflects both strong demand and limited supply. It does not mean every home will sell at that price, but it signals a high-cost market and strong pricing at many segments.

Why are luxury sales increasing when mortgage rates are over 6 percent?

Luxury sales are rising because many buyers at the top of the market have substantial liquidity from stock, RSU, company exits, or savings, and some transact with cash. The influx of wealth tied to AI and tech has increased purchasing power for many buyers, enabling luxury transactions despite higher rates.

How do condos compare to single family homes right now in San Mateo County?

Condo sales and prices have lagged multiple years. Condos are down about 8 percent year over year in transactions and have seen roughly 1 to 2 percent decline over the last four to five years. Single family homes, especially well-located and well-prepared properties, are experiencing stronger appreciation.

What should buyers do to be competitive in this market?

Buyers should secure conditional underwriting approval, be ready to move quickly on well-priced homes, craft clean offers with realistic contingencies and timelines, and prioritize which aspects of the real estate triangle — location, condition, or price — they can compromise on.

Are price reductions common and what do they indicate?

Price reductions have increased about 17 percent year over year for the comparable period. That often reflects sellers who initially listed with overly ambitious prices. It can create opportunities for buyers when well-located homes are reduced to more accurate market levels.

How long will the current appreciation trend last?

While forecasting exact timing is impossible, the San Mateo County housing market 2025 is poised for continued appreciation in the near term, particularly for top properties. Many factors point to further price gains over the next 3 to 9 months for the best-located and best-presented homes, though not all properties will appreciate equally.

What role does the Fed rate cut play?

A quarter percent Fed rate cut in September helped sentiment and opened the door for potential additional cuts. Any easing on rates can support affordability, but local supply and buyer liquidity driven by equity gains and company events remain the dominant forces for price direction.

Does cash really dominate even at mid-price points?

Cash is more common at upper tiers but is also appearing at mid price points in select cases. Approximately 30 percent of transactions in some high-end towns were cash. However, the majority of buyers still use financing, which is why strong pre-underwriting is crucial for competitiveness.

Conclusion And Next Steps

The San Mateo County housing market 2025 is a complex but comprehensible market. Supply is constrained, demand is strong, and AI- and tech-related liquidity is reshaping the buyer pool. The result is record median prices for the county and a robust luxury market, even in a higher-rate environment.

If you are buying, focus on financial readiness and speed. If you are selling, invest in presentation and pricing strategy to capture the strong demand for top-quality inventory. Neighborhood-level nuances matter, and small changes in buyer composition can move local markets rapidly.

For people preparing to make a move within San Mateo County, start now with the pre-listing and pre-buying tasks you can control: get a conditional underwriting approval, declutter and complete necessary repairs, and plan your marketing timeline. The more prepared you are, the more options you will have when the right opportunity appears.

San Mateo County’s housing market 2025 is a snapshot of both local strength and broader economic shifts. Whether you are a buyer, seller, or just keeping an eye on local real estate, understanding these drivers will help you make better decisions and navigate one of the Bay Area’s most dynamic housing markets.